Reflections and projections (š¤ / š®)
The calendar year might be arbitrary in a sense, but itās useful to have some regular cycle for reflecting on a manageable chunk of the past and looking forward to the future. So December is a fine moment to ask questions like:
- š¤ Where have we got to with this whole 2022 thing?
- š® What might 2023 have in store?
Annual reflections and projections both risk centering the perspective of whoeverās doing the reflecting and projecting. So with an appropriate grain of salt, hereās what I see when I think back on the past year and look ahead to whatās next in four areas: democracy, capitalism, digital, and the social change sector.
The following is a cross-post from my Open CoLab newsletter. The newsletter tends to be more fleeting commentary, while this Medium blog is more stable analysisābut this post blurs the line.
š¤ #1 - Democracyās not dead yetā¦ but itās not healthy either
In the U.S., the midterms were followed first by a collective sigh of relief as the rumored āred waveā fizzled, and then by a continued clenching of jaws as we acknowledged the fundamentals havenāt changed.
Yes, the worst MAGA senate candidates lost and that might weaken Trumpās grip on the GOP. But the margins of defeat were thin, and the Republicans vying to replace him arenāt much better. In some cases, like Floridaās DeSantis, theyāre worse: the same authoritarian politics, with more discipline and less personal baggage.
And yes, the election-denying secretary of state candidates all lost too. But plenty of other election deniers won. The Big Lie hasnāt gone away because, as politics, it works.
At the state level, it becomes a blur of mixed results. One quick way to think about what happened is in terms of trifectas: states where one party controls the governorship and both chambers of the state house (or the chamber, in the case of Nebraska ā the only unicameral state).
The news here is good, if marginal: Republicans lost one trifecta (Arizona will be divided government, with incoming Democratic governor Katie Hobbs) and Democrats netted three (moving Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota from divided to D trifecta, while Nevada went the other way). So thatās good. But it still means Republicans have 22 trifectas and Democrats have 17 (with 11 divided).
The state and local level also saw positive results on ballot measures, ranging from abortion to medical marijuana ā with Republicans seizing on these results to restrict future ballot measures.
I worry the above snapshot of results risks falling into the āboth sidesā and false equivalency frames, so letās be clear about whatās going on. Thereās a real struggle over the existence of an inclusive democracy. Itās not a level playing field for lots of complicated reasons but also a very simple one: undermining democracy is easier than strengthening it. (Big-D) Democratic trifectas arenāt a guarantee of good policy in general or even (little-d) democratic protections like voting rights (š from New York). But Republican trifectas sure seem like determinants of bad policies and laboratories of authoritarianism. Fewer of them is better.
Globally, thereās also a mixed bag. Weāve seen other electoral rebukes to authoritarian populism (Bolsonaroās loss in Brazil), massive blunders by authoritarian regimes (Russiaās invasion of Ukraine, Chinaās zero-covid policy), and peopleās movements resisting those regimes (protests by Iranian women). Weāve seen a renewed energy in anti-kleptocracy, with earlier work getting boosted and mainstreamed by the interest in freezing/seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs (even USAID is getting in the game). Counter-trends include the election of an authoritarian dynasty in the Philippines and overall shifts that are not good.
In sum: The yearās events (and especially the U.S. midterms) werenāt as bad for democracy as they couldāve been. The house hasnāt burned down yet. But itās still on fire.
š® for 2023
In the U.S., expect continued fights over voting rights/access and democratic fundamentals. Expect Democrats to continue teeter-tottering between a unified defense of democracy and finger-pointing between centrists and the left-er (progressive, socialist, etc) flank. Expect Republicans to continue a strategy based on culture wars and targeting marginalized groups, while arguing internally about who can best lead that strategy. Expect little discussion (from them) of whether itās the right strategy.
Globally, expect progress and setbacks. Iām not someone to predict specific election outcomes or flashpoints, but I will predict this much: there will be flashpoints when windows of opportunity open; if you want to make change, you have to be ready for them.
(Side š¤ ā Monarchy still a thing, apparently. Following the death of the British monarch, I was honestly shocked to see how many people defended monarchy as an institution. I thought we all just agreed it was a lingering vestige of earlier authoritarianism that would eventually fade from history. In the ensuing discussions, several smart people shared articles on the alleged stabilizing effects of monarchies and I found them all to be utterly unconvincing. š¤·)
š¤ #2 - Efforts to āfixā capitalism have gone mainstream
There have, of course, always been critiques of the dominant thinking that organizes our economic system ā which we short-hand as ācapitalismā. Those critiques have found increased traction in mainstream channels since the 2008 financial crisis, accelerated along the way by the Occupy movement in 2011, Bernie Sandersā 2016 campaign, the onset of the COVID pandemic in 2020, and a general backdrop of growing inequality.
Is this year different ā perhaps a tipping point? Or the continuation of that trend? A few data points.
Unions are seeing more wins and more public support than in decades. The Democratic Socialists of America keep winning more elections each cycle at every level of government. Antitrust and antimonopoly work have moved from being a āphony warā to what Matt Stoller calls a āshooting warā.
Meanwhile, the shine has come off some efforts like ESG (and impact investing, which isnāt the same but is related). For those who support ESGās goals, watered-down standards can look more like greenwashing. The political right has also been trotting out rhetoric around āwoke capitalismā that frames ESG as some kind of Marxism.
And though there are still some advocates for technological approaches to a new economic future, like crypto or DAOs, the hype has softened as the balance has tipped from āpotential good we could doā to āactual harm weāve doneā ā from money laundering to FTXās collapse. Promoters have to fight against an association with hucksters, while critics are no longer presumed to be mere luddites.
š® for 2023
Cross-partisan political momentum for fixing the economy continues to build, but with deep disagreements on how to do it. The most exciting work will be at the state and local levels, including union drives and cooperatives. We might see some solid regulations or enforcement at the federal level, but anything big is likely to get stalled by divided politics and captured courts.
š¤ #3 - Dominant digital spaces continue their descent, while new approaches gain energy
Setting the recent headlines in context, itās clear Twitter has spent the last few years deteriorating the way ketchup comes out of a bottle: slowly at first, and now all at once. Under the new management (if it can be called that), the site looks increasingly like captured territory in the culture war.
Should we all leave it behind? The space has been too important for too many movements and activists to yield it. But theyāre rethinking how they use it and where else they spend time. (In fact, Ted Fickes has some thoughts for nonprofits trying to figure out what it all means from them.)
Facebookās challenges have been pushed out of the spotlight by Twitter, but it hasnāt done much to improve its position in recent years. Iāve seen an uptick in LinkedIn activity too, but it has its own flaws.
š® for 2023: Whatās next for Twitter? I donāt pretend to know. Iāve appreciated Dave Karpfās thoughtful analysis on the subject; heās good at looking past what someone says they believe to what theyāre actually doing and the incentives they face.
Where I feel more confident is noting the zeitgeist has moved away from VC-backed, billionaire-run technology companies as the default owner of digital public spaces. The twitter-addicted, always-online set has been getting excited about Mastodonās federated model. The journalism sector has been re-imagining local civic media, as described here by Sarah Alvarez. Weāll see more experimentation to move away from the toxicity, disinformation, and other problems of the dominant platforms.
(Side plug: because moments of experimentation can feel chaotic, Iāve been keenly watching work by New_ Public to help us collectively sensemake and envision the future of digital public spaces.)
š¤ #4 - Riding the hype curve in the social change sectors
Iāve long appreciated how the Gartner hype curve describes the evolution of ideas in social change work. Gartner mostly applies it to leading-edge technology like AI, but itās useful for new ideas and trends in any sector.
(For those new to the framework: the basic idea is that an idea first hits the edge of possibility with a technology trigger, then rides up to inflated expectations, before crashing into a trough of disillusionment, and rides up the slope of enlightenment before reaching the plateau of productivity. See graphic below. Gartner calls this a cycle, but thereās nothing cyclical about it. What I find most useful about the framework is the reminder that inflated expectations are followed by a crash ā which often involves a backlash.)
So with that framework in mind, here are some ideas I see moving along the curve.
āļø Philanthropic and nonprofit commitments to DEI: moving up the slope
Foundations and nonprofits responded to 2020ās Black Lives Matter protests with a surge of statements and commitments around diversity, equity, inclusion, and (less frequently) racial justice. They were quickly met with a mix of praise and well-founded skepticism from supporters, and outright hostility from opponents.
In a 2021 study titled Mismatched, Malkia Devich Cyril, Lyle Matthew Kan, Ben Francisco Maulbeck, and Lori Villarosa looked at racial justice funding data since 2015, including preliminary data from 2020, and summarized their findings as: āgetting closer, but not close enough.ā
I havenāt seen more recent data, but my sense (admittedly from a mix of anecdotes Iāve heard, internal conversations Iāve been part of, and external discourse) is that foundations in particular have been working those commitments through processes ā setting a new strategy for this, hiring a new lead for that ā that grind slowly but ultimately set them on a course for better aligned funding in the coming years.
The likes of MacKenzie Scott have moved faster, sending unrestricted and unexpected support to (among others) organizations focused on racial justice. Thatās creating further pressure on legacy foundations, as staff who have been advancing such approaches for years now have a concrete and high-profile example to hold up.
š® for 2023: The Gartner framework feels a bit trite here ā letās not use the word āproductivityā in the same sentence as ājusticeā ā but it looks like the social change sectors are (slowly) getting serious about DEI. Expect continued movement in that direction, but no less work needed to keep the sector on track.
āļø Effective altruism and long-termism crest and crash
The summertime coverage of William MacAskillās What We Owe the Future rocketed long-termism into the discourse. The related ideas behind the Effective Altruism (EA) movement followed along on its coattails. For a few weeks, it seemed impossible to avoid a review of the book or its ideas. And that, in turn, brought discussions of their flaws.
The discourse simmered down, only to be thrust back into headlines as crypto exchange FTX imploded. As FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried heads toward bankruptcy and maybe even prison, EA has lost one its major funders along with a bit of claim to the moral high ground.
š® for 2023: I donāt think weāll see EA and long-termism making news next year. With the wounds still fresh, theyād be wise to lay low. But I suspect the net result of 2022ās headlines will be to attract new adherents, who will pull the movement in new directions. That will come with some disillusionment among early adopters and true believers. Result: a broader, more diffuse movement than before (though one that still skews northern, white, male, and educated) finds its way up the slope of enlightenment.
ā”ļø Remote work by design.
In 2020, most organizations moved from āin-person by defaultā to āremote by necessityā. They slowly found ways to support teams suddenly working from home. Then they spent the following two years trying to get back to the office, in the face of new variants, concerns from disability advocates, and the fact that working from home can be quite nice.
Recently, Iām seeing legacy organizations update their paradigms to āremote by designā, including careful planning for remote collaboration for most work, alongside periodic gatherings for strategy retreats, team building, and other in-person work. New organizations seem to be following this paradigm from the start.
I have a soapbox speech on this, especially for organizations protecting democracy or working on policy, organizing, or any systemic issues. The short version is this: how can your organization really understand the country (or the world) where you work if you require every team member to live in DC, or NYC, or the Bay Area?
š® for 2023: Expect this trend to continue along the plateau of productivity, with a proliferation of models. Weāll see fewer organizations with big headquarters offices, and more with hybrid clusters in a few cities, or no permanent offices but rather periodic national gatherings at retreat centers. Weāll see more services designed to support remote organizations (like Alix Dunnās āRemote Culture Clubā). Weāll see happier employees, who can make space for caregiving responsdonāt need to uproot their lives for new jobs. Weāll also see more competition for talent.
What do you think?
Any big reflections you have on the past year, or projections youād make for the future?
Side plug: I always appreciate Lucy Bernholzās annual collection of reflections and predictions for philanthropy and civil society. This yearās Blueprint 2023 is thoughtful, as always, and brings new voices into the mix with an essay on how two decades of increased focus on impact evaluations have shaped civil society, and another on how the market for voter data has shaped organizing.
P.S. Requiem for the bird site? š¦
Like many, Iāve dropped off Twitter in recent few months. I didnāt make a deliberate decision to boycott, but simply realized I donāt enjoy opening the app anymore. Instead, you can find me spending more time on Mastodon, the Open CoLab substack newsletter, and here on Medium.
And bonus: without Twitter distracting me, Iāve put some of my newfound focus into creating a series of video shorts on strategy. If that sounds intriguing, hereās the first in the series: What is strategy?
There are five others in the series so far:
- How far out can you plan your strategy: Horizons vs. cycles
- Filling in the boxes: Strategy frameworks
- The one thing every strategy needs: Learning & adaptation
- Doing strategy: What is a strategist?
- Dealing with uncertainty: Frontline heuristic
I have a few more coming after the holidays. Doing video is very new for me, and very much an experiment. Iād love to know what you think.